18-year real estate cycle

History likes to repeat itself, and it turns out that in the real estate market, it repeats with astonishing accuracy. Homer Hoyt was the first to notice this in the 1930s. The cycle has 4 main phases: Recovery Phase (approx. 7 years) – Spring: Nature comes to life. Similarly, market prices are still low, optimism and confidence appear—making it a good time to invest. Boom Phase (approx. 7 years) – Summer: The sun shines the hottest, and plants grow the fastest. This is when market demand surges rapidly, properties sell in the blink of an eye, prices go sharply up, and every single zloty saved makes a huge difference. Oversupply Phase (1-2 years) – Autumn: The harvest time slowly passes, and everything gradually slows down. So much has been built that the market has become saturated. There is a lack of people willing to rent rooms and buy apartments. Supply exceeds demand. Recession Phase (approx. 3-4 years) – Winter: Plants do not grow. You have to survive a difficult time. Market prices fall, banks are reluctant to grant loans, and there are few transactions. Those without debts and without real estate intermediaries cope the best. After this phase, spring will come again—recovery. We are currently in the Oversupply phase (the year 2026), and it is possible that we will enter the next stage in just a year. This is a good moment to think about "that" investment and "that" loan.